2011 – 2012 NBA Champion

Its hard to say for certain what will happen in the NBA next year when its unclear where certain players will sign as free agents. What we do know is that there are only several teams that will be a legitimate contender. The disparity between the top and bottom feeders lessened in last years playoffs, however, the true contenders are still only the Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Chicago Bulls, and of course, the World Champion Dallas Mavericks.

Below is my rankings on the likelihood of which team will be the champion next year in reverse order:

6. Boston Celtics – As age creeps in on this group, their window continues to diminish. Rajon Rondo is a supreme talent who has not yet approached his prime, but nearly everyone else on the roster is several years removed from their glory years. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Jermaine O’Neal, and even Paul Pierce have all seen their better days. Unfortunately for the Celtics, they too, have seen their best days pass them by.

5. Oklahoma City Thunder – Kevin Durant is a once in a generation type talent, Serge Ibaka is a gifted athlete with an unlimited ceiling, James Harden and Kendrick Perkins know their roles and play them well. Russell Westbrook is what throws a kink into this equation. Although Westbrook is a talented individual player, he does not possess the team first mentality that is necessary on a team that has been constructed as the Thunder have. Trading Westbrook for a Chris Paul or Deron Williams type should not be out of the question for the Thunder front office.

4. Chicago Bulls – The Bulls face a similar problem that the Oklahoma CIty Thunder face; their point guard is a shoot first, take over the game type player. Derrick Rose is arguably the best point guard in the NBA today, but his consistent 9-25 showings are shooting his team into the ground. Without a definite second option (Boozer? Deng?) its hard to see a balance that is necessary in a potential champion. This is the type of group that excels in the regular season and falters in crunch time when team play is necessary.

3. Dallas Mavericks – They will have the majority of their players from last years championship team returning and are already in talks to resign Caron Butler to a long term deal. They are a year older, which doesn’t play into their favor, but fresh off a playoff run for the ages, this squad reminds me of the Houston Rockets of 1994. The entire roster was built around Hakeem Olajuwon (Dirk Nowitzki in the Mavericks case), who was surrounded by shooters. The Rockets were able to repeat in 1995 with pure heart and grit. The Mavericks may be able to prove all the doubters wrong with a repeat.

2. Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers return their entire roster. However, the most important piece of the puzzle may have left with his bad left hip. Phil Jackson retired this offseason leaving a daunting task for Mike Brown and his new coaching staff. If the Lakers don’t win another championship this year, the Kobe era may be over. Tack on Kobe Bryant’s mileage, Andrew Bynum’s inconsistencies, and Pau Gasol’s late game disappearing acts, and this all adds up to a tough task for a new staff in their first year. The plus is that purely talent wise, the Lakers have the best team in the league.

1. Miami Heat – Lebron James, Dywane Wade, Chris Bosh. They went to the Finals last year and basically choked the series away. They will not lose in year two of this superstar experiment. As cliche as it may sound, the Heat will win, and if they don’t it will be more shocking than The Decision.